Table 2 Examples of published studies showing more rapid declines in youth smoking coincident with the introduction of ENDS
From: The “Gateway” hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations
Article | Location, Data | Pre-trend in cigarette smoking | Post-trend in cigarette smoking | Comments | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year(s) | Annual Change | Year(s) | Annual Change | |||
Levy et al. [14] | USA, MTF 12th grade | 2004–2013 | -4.6% | 2014–2017 | -14.1% | “Thus, the downward trend was more than three times greater in the vaping period” (14.1%) than the long-term trend (4.6%). |
USA, MTF 10th grade | 2004–2013 | -5.8% | 2014–2017 | -19.8% | “…more than three times the relative reduction in the vaping period (19.8%=5.8%+14.0%) than the preceding period (5.8%)” | |
USA, NYTS high school | 2000–2013 | -8.2% | 2014–2017 | By -22.0% | “With the vaping period modelled as a simple reduction in smoking for the YRBS and NYTS analyses, we obtained a 52% lower past 30-day smoking rates in the vaping period for YRBS and a 22% reduction for NYTS” | |
USA, YRBS high school | 2003–2017 | -6.2% | 2014–2017 | By -52.0% | ||
Foxon & Selya [42] | USA, NYTS | 1999–2009 | Projected smoking prevalence in 2018: ~4.25% | 2010–2018 | Actual smoking prevalence in 2018: ~1.9% | Analyses compared actual data vs. counterfactual projections (based on pre-period trends) using exponential trend modeling. |
Meza et al. [43] | USA, MTF 12th grade boys | 2006–2012 | -1.6% | 2012–2019 | -17.4% | |
USA, MTF 10th grade boys | 2005–2011 | -0.7% | 2011–2019 | -17.9% | ||
USA, MTF 8th grade boys | 1996–2011 | -8.8% | 2011–2019 | -17.3% | ||
USA, MTF 12th grade girls | 1997–2012 | -7.2% | 2012–2019 | -17.5% | ||
USA, MTF 10th grade girls | 1997–2012 | -9.5% | 2012–2019 | -16.3% | ||
USA, MTF 8th grade girls | 1991–1996 | 10.9% | 1996–2019 | -10.8% | ||
Wagner & Clifton [44] | USA, American Lung association Tobacco Trend Brief | 1990–2009 | Projected smoking prevalence in 2019: ~12% | 2010–2019 | Actual smoking prevalence in 2019: ~6% | Analyses compared actual data vs. counterfactual projections (based on pre-period trends) using dynamical systems modeling. |