Fig. 4
From: Modeling the population health impact of accurate and inaccurate perceptions of harm from nicotine
Ranges of cumulative premature deaths prevented corresponding to sensitivity scenarios for the “Definitely not” and Definitely yes” response groups. Footnote: The adjustments to the base case rates are based on the 95% confidence intervals of the switching rates for the “Definitely not” and Definitely yes” response groups. The upper and lower 95% confidence limits associated with the “Definitely not” response group results in a net population health benefit between 373,000 and 1.3 million premature deaths prevented (shaded region labeled “Definitely not”). The upper and lower 95% confidence limit corresponding to the “Definitely yes” response group results in a net population health risk between approximately 40,000 and 509,000 additional premature deaths (shaded region labeled “Definitely yes”). Note: The shaded regions do not overlap, indicating a clear difference in the outcomes of these two groups